Friday, June 28, 2013

Historical movies in chronical order



Quest for Fire
The Ten Commandments
Troy
The Odyssey
Alexander
Spartacus
Rome
Empire
The Passion of the Christ
Ben-Hur
Nero
Gladiator
Augustine: The Decline of the Roman Empire
Ancient Rome: The Rise and Fall of an Empire
Curse of he Golden Flower
Macbeth
Kingdom of Heaven
Robin Hood
The Name of the Rose
Joan of Arc
Braveheart
The Conclave
Mongol
Marco Polo
Conquest 1453
1492: Conquest of Paradise
The Borgias
The Tudors
The Other Boleyn Girl
Apocalypto
Elizabeth
Elizabeth: The Golden Age
The Merchant of Venice
Shōgun
The New World
The Devil's Whore
Charles II: The Power and The Passion
The Red Violin
Rob Roy
Roots
Marie Antoinette
Amadeus
The Last of the Mohicans
Brotherhood of the Wolf
The Duchess
The Patriot
Marie Antoinette
Farewell, My Queen
The Madness of King George
Vanity Fair
Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World
War and Peace
Amazing Grace
Les Misérables
The Count of Monte Cristo
The Alamo
The Young Victoria
Mrs. Brown
Amistad
Gangs of New York
The Charge of the Light Brigade
Ride with the Devil
12 Years A Slave
Gone with the Wind
Glory
Gettysburg
Cold Mountain
Lincoln
Wyatt Earp
Dances with Wolves
Anna and the King
Deadwood
The Last Samurai
The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford
Tombstone
Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid
Gandhi
1911
Meet Me in St. Louis
The Battleship Potemkin
Titanic
Doctor Zhivago
Ararat
All Quiet On The Western Front
Joyeux Noel
Flyboys
Gallipoli
A Very Long Engagement
Lawrence of Arabia
Michael Collins
The Lost Battalion
Kundun
The Last Emperor
The Wind that Shakes the Barley
Chariots of Fire
Evita
Legionnaire
The King's Speech
Casablanca
Australia
Road to Perdition
The Flowers of War
Schindler's List
The Pianist
Tora! Tora! Tora!
The Pacific
The Bridge on the River Kwai
The Thin Red Line
Empire of the Sun
Letters from Iwo Jima
Paradise Road
Band of Brothers
Enemy at the Gates
The Imitation Game
Patton
The Longest Day
Saving Private Ryan
Valkyrie
A Bridge Too Far
Flags of Our Fathers
Letters from Iwo Jima
Downfall
Nuremberg
Fat Man and Little Boy
Emperor
Seven Years in Tibet
The Reader
The Godfather
LA Confidential
The Shawshank Redemption
The Good Shepherd
The Right Stuff
Good Night, and Good Luck
Che
The Motorcycle Diaries
Quiz Show
JFK
The Godfather: Part II
J. Edgar
Thirteen Days
Ghosts of Mississippi
Mississippi Burning
We Were Soldiers
The Doors
Platoon
The Deer Hunter
Full Metal Jacket
Apocalypse Now
Born on the Fourth of July
The Deer Hunter
Bobby
Nixon
Apollo 13
All the President's Men
Goodfellas
Zodiac
Taxi Driver
Milk
The Last King of Scotland
Munich
Balibo
Frost/Nixon
Summer of Sam
Goodbye Bafana
Catch a Fire
Argo
Charlie Wilson's War
Jarhead
Three Kings
Black Hawk Down
Hotel Rwanda
Invictus
Behind Enemy Lines
Blood Diamond
The Queen
W.
Lions for Lambs
The Hurt Locker
The Social Network
Green Zone
Too Big to Fail
Margin Call
Zero Dark Thirty

Friday, June 7, 2013

Dangers of Japan's monetary policy

In 2012, with the election of Shinzo Abe, Japan embarked on a policy of bond buying which has subsequently taken the dollar-yen back to 95 , it's highest point since the financial crisis started. This is great for Japanese exporters because it makes their exports more competitive and also exerts real wage depreciation on workers, which helps the long-term competitiveness of the country.

The downside to this policy is that Japan is already in a liquidity trap. Demand for money is very low despite interest rates that are touching -(1.5)%. This is creating a temporary bubble in the TSE as hot money starts flowing into the yen to take advantage of the inflationary bull market. The challenge is that as the hot money flows into Japan, the yen rises, making the central bank's bond buying harder and harder to stay ahead of to achieve their desired goal.


The liquidity trap is really dangerous - something Europe may soon learn (the Netherlands specifically). No matter how low interest rates go, the economic engine won't turn over. This is why the easing program that Shinzo Abe has announced is being well received - even if it is 20 years too late to have a real impact.

Japan's real problem is that they have no domestic growth and their exports are being commoditized by other Asian countries like Korea, Taiwan, China, Indonesia and even Malaysia. The question is: without monetary trickery where is growth going to come from?

Japan has a population expected to decline by as many as 50 million people by the end of the century; they have very limited natural resources, which combined with the current anti-nuclear push has created higher production costs for Japanese manufacturers; and they have a "ingenuity gap" as US tech companies continue to dominate the Internet and Korean and Chinese manufacturers handle the gadget manufacturing.

Today the Tokyo Stock Exchange entered into bear market territory, down 10% from it's recent peak. This monetary alchemy needs to stop or else the yen risks a real collapse into an unstoppable deflationary spiral with inflation. This is stagflation 2.0 and could do a lot to derail the good economic news coming out of the US. Trade with caution.

Monday, June 3, 2013

The state of the Republican Party

The most common adjectives to describe today's Republican Party include: obstructionist, anti-women, anti-gay, anti-immigrant or pro-gun. These are not the adjectives that will win seats in the 2014 mid-terms or the 2016 presidential race.

The Republican Party badly needs to change its messaging away from demagoguery towards something inspirational for the country to grasp. As the economist noted in last weeks newspaper, Gen Y is a neo-liberal group encouraged by the values of the Internet: freedom, liberty, anti-statist. I think this is a great opportunity the Republicans. 

The Republicans have lost the culture wars; religiosity is now a net negative to the party. In the mid-1990s it was a way to consolidate the base, but now that base, in form of the Tea Party Caucus is pulling the party in two. The disappointment to many is that Tea Party Caucus economic values are actually mainstream among Gen Y. The idea that the government should regulate and supervise business and protect the environment and otherwise stay out of the private sector economy is a vision that can be easy to grasp. Gen Y is also very much skeptical of the welfare state. The challenge is that the Tea Party Caucus vision for a neo-liberal economic model is blunted by their statist religiousness. If they could advocate freedom of choice, freedom of beliefs and advocate for more state-based decision-making they could have a winning message.

The Republicans also need to avoid their current pattern of disingenuousness. Rolling out Ann Romney to boost her husbands' fortunes with women came of as pandering. After losing the 2012 election, the Republicans have now decided that Latino voters are am important demographic for them. They have now been trotting out Marco Rubio in a blatant attempt to look, not pro-Latino, but at least not anti-Latino. It all has a false feeling to it. Like selecting Michael Steele as the RNC chairman after 2008 to show the Republicans were progressive on civil rights after Obama's victory. The American people know when they are being lied to and when politicians are being disingenuous.

Chris Christie is truly a model for the future of the Republican Party. While he may not make a great presidential candidate, he can be the ideological guide to the party. He has some good ideas: put money in classrooms rather that teacher's unions, ensure the government has no structural deficits by engaging in entitlement reform, invest in infrastructure, etc. Those are very centrist opinions, and Christie has been very shy when wading into any culture war arenas.

Michelle Bachmann is now gone as the philosophical leader of the Tea Party Caucus, Sarah Palin's anti-intelligence dogma has been silenced in the main steam. This is an important opportunity for the Republicans to go away, come up with a platform and a framework for the country that can inspire.