As the post-Soviet world begins to reshape into a multi-polar world order, with China and the EU as the new main participants, control over the New Spice Route is going to become a continuing theme in global affairs.
The most existential threat to global economic growth in 2014 is concerns about the global trade in hydrocarbons. Some of the worlds most important economies, and largest contributors to global growth rely on imports of hydrocarbons to fuel their growing economies. This is the great challenge to Asia especially as many Asian nations have very limited domestic supplies of oil and gas.
The existential crisis is most prevalent for Japan, following the Fukushima-Daichi nuclear plant disaster. Much of the Japanese Economic Miracle of the 1970s-1990 is due to relatively low cost of inputs from one of the world's largest systems of nuclear power. Following Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda's decision to wind-down Japan's aging nuclear power plants, Japan has been spending large amounts importing oil and gas, specifically from the Middle East. This is putting pressure on global oil prices and making Japan's exports less competitive.
Japan is an example to other Asian nations, like South Korea, Taiwan, Vietnam and Malaysia, as to the importance of the global hydrocarbon trade and the dangers of Chinese militarism in the South China Sea. Essentially, for these nations, if China is able to displace American naval superiority in the South and East China Seas, then they will be completely dependent on China, and face a crisis as China would have the ability to stop economic activity in the Asia-Pacific with an oil embargo.
As much as two-thirds of global trade flows through the Strait of Malacca and is managed through the major international ports of Kuala Lumpur and Singapore. This is trade from Asia bound for European consumers and Middle Eastern hydrocarbons headed toward energy-starved Asian nations.
Control of the Strait, as well as the Adaman Sea and the South China Sea is key for globalization to continue in the 21st century.
This is the most important global pinch-point and a geo-strategic imperative for the United States to ensure remains free to global trade. However, recent discoveries of hydrocarbon fields off-shore in the sea have led to a scramble to harvest those resources. Malaysia, Vietnam, Phillipines and China all claim ownership of the resource rights in the South China Sea. China (not shown on map) claims the entire South China Sea and this will be a cauldron of diplomacy in the coming decades. US and European engagement is necessary to counter-balance Chinese growth and protect the economic interests in the region.
The New Pharaohs
The second strategically volatile region for global trade is the Red Sea. An overlooked concern of the Arab Spring and the overthrow of President Hosni Mubarak in 2011 was the Suez Canal. While the West received some guarantees from the Egyptian military that access to the canal would be maintained, this remains an concern for global trade as political uncertainty remains.
The Red Sea contains two main choke points, the first at the Suez Canal, the second at the Gulf of Aden. Currently, the Gulf of Aden is the most insecure area to navigate on the New Spice Route. Regional instability in Yemen, Sudan, Eritrea and the failed state of Somalia make this a difficult area of influence for the United States and European allies. This is an area the Global War on Terror has destabilized even further. Adding to the complexity is the question of nuclear negotiations with Iran and the concern in the Persian Gulf and specifically the strategically important Strait of Hormuz.
As the center of the global hydrocarbon trade, the Arabian Kings in Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, UAE and Oman will continue to wield outsized influence and will become a more important military power in the 21st century as the war-weary United States winds down engagements in the region post-Iraq War.
It would be the expectation that US military-industrial complex will be investing heavily with American regional allies on the peninsula, and that the US Congress will allow a larger amount of arm sales to produce a counterweight to Iran, as well as allow for more domestic counter-terrorism activities.
Maintaining the Balance in the Mediterranean
The final leg of the New Spice Route is Europe's backyard. The Mediterranean is a region traditionally controlled by European powers. While the Strait of Gibraltar is the most secure pinch point in global trade, recent Russian movements have changed the dynamics of the sea and created a geopolitical crisis as Russia's annexation of Crimea can be seen as a threat to the West as it grants the Russians broader access to the Mediterranean basin and the ability to disrupt global trade in any future conflict.
This is where the Crisis in Ukraine extends to become a geo-strategic concern. Incorporating Crimea and the Port of Sevastopol into the Russian Federation grants Russian de facto control of the Black Sea. This creates challenges for NATO, as Turkey is a linchpin of that alliance, and this starts a balance of power situation for the region.
As Turkey continues is economic rise, it may seek broader assurances for its security by acting alone. Turkey faces many challenges on its Eastern flank as nationalist Kurds look to form a state in Northern Iraq and Syria. This is a domestic political concern for Turkey, home to 14 million Kurds.
Turkey also faces a refugee crisis as the Syrian Civil War extends into its third year. Add al Qaeda-linked organizations like Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS) and continuing unrest in the Levant, and Turkey becomes a more vital ally to the West in the new world order. Not only as a counter-balance to Russia, as it was during the Cold War, but also as a barrier to radical militants in the Middle East en route to Europe.
Overall, this bodes well for the continuation of American economic and political might in the 21st century.
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